Capstone Wealth Advisors／キャップストーン・ウェルス・アドバイザーズ

【　2024年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

退職後の資産運用、どんな方法がありますか？

A：債券、株式、証券、年金、それぞれ長短所の理解を。退職後、どこで過ごすかも重要な判断材料です。

老後の生活に向けて資産を蓄えることは投資の重要な目的の一つです。年々物価が上昇する中、皆さんも効率的に資産を増やすために401(k)やIRA、Roth IRAなどを積極的にご利用されていると思います。この誌面では蓄えた資産を退職後にどのように運用すべきかについてご紹介致します。

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プロが解決！　お金の悩み2024 in アメリカ

【　2022年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

投資を始めたいけど、何を組み合わせるべき？

A: 投資の留意点は大きく四つ、リスクと分散投資、投資資産の種類、税務、最近の動向です。

リスクと分散投資

投資にリスクは付き物です。資産によってリスクは異なり、戦争、金利とマクロ経済、政治など制御の難しいリスクから一般企業の業績や特定の不動産などの個別リスクまでさまざまです。…..

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プロが解決！お金の悩み 2022 〜 アメリカでの不動産、投資、税金、資金計画

【　2020年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

老後資金、何が必要？

アメリカでの退職後の生活を計画するにあたり見落とされがちなのが介護費用です。日本では最大９割まで国の介護保険制度が負担してくれますが、アメリカでは基本的に全て自己負担となります。介護（Long-Term Care）サービスは….

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Lighthouse Seattle & Portland : July 2020 (us-lighthouse.com)

【　2018年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

子どもの学費が心配。今からどんな貯蓄ができる？

A:　529プランとGETプランを用いた貯蓄方法があります

大学生の学費と必要経費、10年後には年間 57,000ドル？

子どもの大学教育費は、自動車や家の購入同様に、時世における高額は出費の１つです。2017～18年度における全米の州立大学の１年間の授業料の平均は….

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ライトハウス2018年7月号「お金の悩み特集」

Dear Valued Clients and Friends,

I hope you are enjoying the nice autumn days and are getting ready for the festive holiday season.

Since FED cut its FF (Fed Fund) rate by 0.50% to the range of 4.75% to 5.00% from the previous range of 5.25% to 5.50% at its FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) on September 18^th, the market has reacted positively to the shift of its policy priority from fighting against inflation to pursuit of strong economy with full employment.  As of October 18^th, S&P 500 has appreciated by 24.3% in total return basis YTD (year to date) and NASDAQ was up 23.9% according to First Trust. All the 11 industrial sectors in S&P 500 shows positive returns; from 34.0% in Information Technology as the top to 11.4% in Energy as the bottom.  Meanwhile, the bond market showed more volatility. The 10-year treasury yield was up from 3.68% on the last FOMC date to 4.21% as of October 22^nd. In its September economic projection, the FED expected its FF rate to be lowered to 4.4% at the end of 2024, 3.4% in 2025, and 2.9% in 2026, assuming PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation to be contained to 2.0% by the end of 2026. The current bond market expects that the FF rate would go down to about 3.45% in late 2025 and stay at the level through 2026 and then go up again, according to SOFR bond futures at CME Group.  The gap reflects the market concern that US inflation might not go down to the 2% target as smoothly as FED expects.

The latest data also presented relatively strong US economic picture.  The September Retail Sales were up 1.7% yoy (year over year), down from 2.2% yoy in August, but the Retail Sales for the last 9 months were still up 2.2% yoy. The September CPI and PPI were up at 2.4% and 1.8% yoy respectively, compared with 2.5% and 1.7% yoy for August. An annualized changes in these indices for the past 3 months were 2.1% in CPI and 1.8% in PPI. The core CPI ex food & energy was still high at 3.3% yoy and 3.1% on an annualized base for the last 3 months. The main driver of the resilient inflation is housing rent which was up 4.1% yoy. The September employment report surprised the market with strong 254,000 new employment, much higher than the market estimate of 150,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. Average hourly earnings were up 4.0% yoy, showing relatively healthy condition of our labor market.  According to JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turn Over Survey) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings in August was 8.04 million, down from the peak of 12.2 million in March2022, but still higher than the level of pre-Covid time, while the number of unemployed people in September was 6.8 million.  Real GDP for 2Q was confirmed at 3.0% and Atlanta FED estimates 3.4% for 3Q 2024 as of October 18^th. The corporate earnings release for 3Q 2024 started in October. According to FactSet’s report as of October 18^th, 14% of the companies in the S&P 500 index reported actual results for Q3 2024 and it seems to have mixed result.  The financial sector proved strong results and exceeded the market estimate, but industrial, health care, and energy sectors had downward revision of earnings growth. We are still in the early stage of the 3Q earnings release, and we will have a better picture later this year.

We will have two major events in November: the presidential election on the 5th and the FOMC meeting on November 6/7^th. I expect FED to keep its dovish stance by cutting its FF rate by 0.25%. As for the presidential election, nobody knows how it would turn out, but I hope our democracy is properly implemented and we all respect the people’s will and the result in order.

WA state has four initiatives on state legislations subject to your vote in the November election. Among them, the initiative 2109 is related to 7% state capital gain tax and the initiative 2124 is related to WA state long-term care program.  All of them are important and please read carefully and cast your votes.

It is good time to catch up with you and discuss your tax strategy for 2024 and financial plan for 2025.  Please let me know your availability for our meeting personally or by Zoom this autumn.

Best regards,

Kos

Note: US stock index and US treasury return data were provided by Charles Schwab and First Trust. The PCE deflator was provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. CPI and PPI data and non-farm payrolls numbers and other labor statistics were based on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. US retail sales data was provided by the Census Bureau.