Capstone Wealth Advisors／キャップストーン・ウェルス・アドバイザーズ

【　2024年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

退職後の資産運用、どんな方法がありますか？

A：債券、株式、証券、年金、それぞれ長短所の理解を。退職後、どこで過ごすかも重要な判断材料です。

老後の生活に向けて資産を蓄えることは投資の重要な目的の一つです。年々物価が上昇する中、皆さんも効率的に資産を増やすために401(k)やIRA、Roth IRAなどを積極的にご利用されていると思います。この誌面では蓄えた資産を退職後にどのように運用すべきかについてご紹介致します。

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プロが解決！　お金の悩み2024 in アメリカ

【　2022年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

投資を始めたいけど、何を組み合わせるべき？

A: 投資の留意点は大きく四つ、リスクと分散投資、投資資産の種類、税務、最近の動向です。

リスクと分散投資

投資にリスクは付き物です。資産によってリスクは異なり、戦争、金利とマクロ経済、政治など制御の難しいリスクから一般企業の業績や特定の不動産などの個別リスクまでさまざまです。…..

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プロが解決！お金の悩み 2022 〜 アメリカでの不動産、投資、税金、資金計画

【　2020年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

老後資金、何が必要？

アメリカでの退職後の生活を計画するにあたり見落とされがちなのが介護費用です。日本では最大９割まで国の介護保険制度が負担してくれますが、アメリカでは基本的に全て自己負担となります。介護（Long-Term Care）サービスは….

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Lighthouse Seattle & Portland : July 2020 (us-lighthouse.com)

【　2018年、ライトハウスの「お金の悩み特集」に記事が掲載されました　】

子どもの学費が心配。今からどんな貯蓄ができる？

A:　529プランとGETプランを用いた貯蓄方法があります

大学生の学費と必要経費、10年後には年間 57,000ドル？

子どもの大学教育費は、自動車や家の購入同様に、時世における高額は出費の１つです。2017～18年度における全米の州立大学の１年間の授業料の平均は….

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ライトハウス2018年7月号「お金の悩み特集」

Dear Valued Clients and Friends,

The decisive victory by Donald Trump last week was welcome by the stock market also in decisive manner. According to First Trust, S&P 500 extended its annual return from 21.5% YTD (year to date) on 11/1 to 27.2% 11/8 on total return basis.  NASDAQ also improved its annual return from 22.2% to 29.3% during the same period. Elon Musk’s Tesla stock price went up from $248.98 per share on 11/1 to $350.00 on 11/11 and Bitcoin was up from $69,267 per coin to over $90,000 lately. We only had 1 week plus from the presidential election and the market has started incorporating the potential impact of the policies and measures by the Trump administration which might be implemented without much resistance since the Republicans has gain the majority in House as well as Senate. We must remember, though, whatever the move of the market needs to be reconfirmed and reconciled with the facts and actual data which are coming over the months and years before it settles. His agendas like mass-deportation of undocumented immigrants, federal spending cut over $2 trillion, heavy import tariffs, and large tax cut could cause distortion on our economy negatively and might reignite potential inflation. His negative comment against Fed Chair Powell and trying to reduce independence and neutrality of Fed (Federal Reserve Board) would not help its effort to control inflation. These are new uncertainties before us. The bond market reacted and reflected these concerns. As the odds of Trump victory increased through October and early November, the 10-year treasury yield has creeped up from 3.74% on 10/1 to over 4.40% this week.  The outstanding federal debt is about 120% of GDP as of Q2 2024. The federal budget deficit will be about $1.92 trillion or 28% of total federal spending of $6.8 trillion. As FED Chair Powell commented last week, the situation is not sustainable. The new administration needs to tackle this difficult structural issue. Nonetheless, I am optimistic about our country’s capability to find solutions for the challenges we face as we always did in the past based on our solid foundation of democracy.

Another major event, which did not gather as much attention as the election, was November FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting which cut its FF (Fed Fund) rate by 0.25% to the range of 4.50% to 4.75% as expected, following the 0.50% cut in its September meeting.  FED Chair Powell addressed at the press conference after the meeting that the US economy showed solid growth with a balanced labor market which is not a source of significant inflationary pressure anymore. Although core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) deflator in September grew at 2.7% yoy (year over year) which is higher than the 2% FED target, FED believes that the current disinflationary trend continues, and the current FF (FED fund) rate is still restrictive to the economy and needs to be lowered.  He mentioned some of the contracts like housing lease and insurance would take time to catch up with the current disinflationary trend.

The latest data continuously presented healthy US economic picture. The September Personal Income was up 5.5% yoy and Personal Consumption Expenditure was up 5.3% yoy. The October employment report showed only 12,000 new jobs, well below the estimate of 100,000 and 223,000 in September, yet the number was largely distorted by the impact of hurricanes and strikes by Boeing employees. October ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices (leading economic indicators) were 46.5 and 56 (over 50 is expansion and less than 50 is contraction) vs 47.2 and 54.9 in September respectively, showing the service sector is accelerating while the manufacturing sector continues to struggle.  The advanced estimate of Real GDP for 3Q is currently annualized rate of 2.8% vs 3.0% confirmed for 2Q, and Atlanta FED estimates 2.5% for 4Q 2024 as of November 7^th. According to FactSet’s report as of November 8^th, 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 index reported actual results for Q3 2024 and 75% have reported actual EPS (earnings per share) above estimates. Combining the actual results with the earnings estimates of the companies that have yet to report, the earnings growth rate for Q3 is expected at 5.3%.  Looking ahead, analysts expect earnings growth rates of 9.4% for 2024 and 14.8% for 2025. The forward 12-month P/E (price/earnings) ratio of S&P 500 is 22.2 which is above the 5-year average (19.6) and the 10-year average (18.1), showing the current stock market level is pricy compared with the historical level.

Lastly, for business owners, you may have already heard news about a major change in federal law that will affect almost everyone operating a business or through a legal entity (company) such as a limited liability company, corporation, cooperative, or a limited partnership.  The new legislation is called the Corporate Transparency Act (“CTA”) and it requires all members and shareholders of entities registered with their respective state’s Secretary of State to register their Beneficial Ownership Information (“BOI” i.e. your personal information) with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (“FinCEN”) by the end of this year.  Failure to comply may lead to severe penalties. I sent a separate email for your attention with more details this week.

Enjoy your early winter!

Best regards,

Kos

Note: US stock index and US treasury return data were provided by Charles Schwab and First Trust. Federal debt and federal budget deficit data is provided by St. Louis Fed and JPMorgan Chase Asset Management.  The PCE deflator was provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. CPI and PPI data and non-farm payrolls numbers and other labor statistics were based on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. US retail sales data was provided by the Census Bureau. The ISM service and manufacturing indices were provided by the Institute for Supply Management.